Зеленая халява кончается

neznaika_nalune — 24.01.2022 Say goodbye to clean energy’s era of constantly falling prices
In the past year prices for solar panels have surged more than 50%, wind turbines are up 13% and battery prices are rising for the first time ever.

...shipping backlogs and commodities shortages are coming at a particularly vulnerable moment for wind and solar. After years of rapid-fire advances in technology and manufacturing, there are fewer opportunities left to cut costs without sacrificing profits. Instead of perpetually falling, prices will now ebb and flow based on the cost of raw materials and other market forces.

...Policymakers, accused of adding wind and solar so rapidly that electric grids have become unstable, are under pressure to ensure the entire system is more reliable — by pairing solar with batteries, for example, or keeping aging nuclear plants running for longer.

...Raw materials now account for 70% of the cost of finished modules, leaving suppliers with almost no room to trim expenses, said David Dixon, a senior analyst with research firm Rystad Energy. A shortage of polysilicon, one of the key materials for the photovoltaic cells that make up solar panels, increased expenses last year, and shipping costs also rose.

...The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. forecast last month that U.S. installations will drop 15% in 2022, about 25% below the trade group’s September forecast.

...The wind industry is going through a similar transition. Prices plunged 48% in the decade through 2020, but are now leveling off and are expected to slide 14% through 2030, according to BloombergNEF.

...George Bilicic, head of global power, energy and infrastructure for Lazard Ltd., said the industry is undergoing permanent changes. Without any new technological breakthroughs or major consolidation, prices are stabilizing.“The story about big cost declines is that large cost declines won't be the story anymore," Bilicic said.

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