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ygam — 18.07.2016 К двухлетию катастрофы MH17.

У меня в ФБ-ленте есть один молодой американец из Теннесси; его профессию я не знаю, но его хобби - кузнечное дело. Несколько месяцев назад он перепостил какой-то конспирологический бред про MH17. Я сказал, что много читал про эту катастрофу, и предложил рассказать, что случилось, в меру своих знаний. Он принял мое предложение. Я рассказал приблизительно вот что (пишу по памяти):

In the winter of 2013-2014 Ukraine had a revolution that expelled a Russia-friendly president who exceeded the limits on his powers. Russia considered this a threat to her imperial ambitions, annexed Crimea, and fomented a rebellion in the southern and eastern provinces of Ukraine so as to split them off as a puppet state of Russia. This rebellion fizzled out everywhere except in the easternmost two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. In June 2014 the Ukrainian army started an offensive and regained control over the rural northern halves of the provinces. The southern halves are heavily urban, and storming them would be very costly in the lives of both Ukrainian soldiers and the local people, whom Ukraine considers her citizens and potential voters. So the Ukrainian leadership decided to send the army along the border so as to cut off the rebels from their supplies of arms, ammunition and volunteers coming from Russia, in a repeat of Winfield Scott's Anaconda strategy. It judged that Russia would not attack its troops because the international repercussions would be too great. This was a grave misjudgment. In July Russia bombarded the Ukrainian troops along the southern border with rocket artillery, and in August mounted a full-scale invasion with hundreds of tanks and other military vehicles, and defeated the Ukrainian army in the Battle of Ilovaysk. In July Ukraine tried to supply the troops along the border from the air. Russia sent a Buk SAM complex to the Donetsk Province to shoot down the transport planes with supplies. It shot down MH17 by mistake.

Мой собеседник написал нечто вроде: "This makes the most sense of everything I've read on the subject so far"; я: "I am not done yet."

As soon as the Russian leadership realized what happened, it started a campaign of lies for both the domestic and the international audience: that it was a Ukrainian SAM complex that shot MH17; that it was a Ukrainian fighter plane; that no one really knows who shot it down. The thing you reposted is probably a part of this campaign. Now, there is a precedent for this called the Katyn Massacre. In 1939, the Soviet Union invaded Poland and captured thousands of POWs, and in 1940 shot some 20,000 of them in three places including the Katyn Forest in western Russia. In 1941, the place was overrun by the Germans, who discovered the mass graves in 1943 and announced their discovery to the world. The Soviet Union lied that it was the Germans themselves who shot the Poles, and stuck to the lie for 40 years until Mikhail Gorbachev finally admitted the truth. The difference is that now, so many people have cellphone cameras and portable digital cameras, and write and post pictures to social networks that it is much easier to find out the truth compared to 70 years ago. Pictures of the Buk as it was being transported came up a few days after the disaster. It had a number 3'2 on its side, where ' is an erased digit. Bellingcat, a site of citizen investigators, analyzed publicly available information and tracked the Buk down to a Russian anti-aircraft brigade based in Kursk, and also found the erased digit. Bellingcat became one of Russia's main foreign enemies, and the Russian foreign ministry has lied about it in its briefings, too. Now, we know where the Buk came from, but not who its crew was. Operating a Buk requires a lot of training, so it would make sense if they were regular Russian soldiers trained to do it, but this information is not publicly available. The commander of the anti-aircraft brigade would know, since he is responsible for all the SAM complexes under his command, but he is not forthcoming with this information. There is an ongoing international criminal investigation, but its interim findings have not been released to the public. This is where things stand now.

Один ФБ-френд этого человека, американец, живущий в Нидерландах, отреагировал: "Ilya, you are a sad Ukie troll"; "Bellingcat is a joke"; "Why didn't Ukraine release its radar data?" и т. п. Я ему ответил так (это опять реконструкция по памяти):

After 9/11 I read a lot about that disaster, too: the official investigative commission report, a book by a commission member, sites discussing conspiracy theories, and so on. I saw that one side has a clear narrative. It goes like this. Islamist organization Al-Qaeda headed by Osama bin Laden declared war on the United States because of the US support of Israel and of secular Middle Eastern regimes that oppress the Islamists. It attacked a US warship, the USS Cole, with a suicide boat; it attacked the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar-Es-Salaam with suicide trucks. It decided that its next attack would be similar in kind but much grander. 19 of its members entered the US, hijacked 4 airliners, killed or incapacitated their pilots, and crashed them into the WTC and the Pentagon; the fourth airplane fell down before it could crash into anything. So much jet fuel inside the WTC buildings ignited gigantic fires that weakened the steel supports and caused the buildings to collapse. The US government and military were woefully unprepared for this kind of attack, did not prevent it and did not react to it adequately as it was happening. Now, the other side, the so-called 9/11 Truth Movement, does not have a clear narrative. It asks provocative questions that imply that the official narrative is lying; it insults people; it takes quotes out of the context; what it does not do is actually say, "These people did this there and then". Because the two sides are so asymmetric, it is easy for me to decide, which one is telling the truth and which one is lying. It is the same with MH17.

Ничего осмысленного мой нидерландский собеседник в ответ не написал, и я окончил разговор.

Почему я это вспомнил? Просто в годовщину трагедии кто-то же должен написать правду о ней? Пусть это буду я.

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