Блефует ли Путин

yakov_a_jerkov — 31.01.2022 Теги: Путин

Another common problem is often its trying to interpret a principal's motive (like, say, "is putin bluffing") by measuring signals several orders removed from that signal (like, say, watching military logistics from imagery), and that isn't always interpretable at a distance

Lots of people seem to be under the impression that better analysis/collection will be able to find the facts and dots that "prove" this is a bluff or an invasion, unaware that this is *actually* indistinguishable *anywhere* on the ground via *any* possible collection

The reason there is that militaries work in *options*, and the difference between a bluff and an invasion is, is ultimately, only whether the option is eventually taken. Developing the option is done on the basis that it must be take-able, and so the buildup is indistinguishable

And these options are rarely all or nothing, but a huge range of options, not just for step 1, but responses to anticipated changes as the situation progresses. And at collection you see all of the planning for all of these options overlapping and occurring in parallel

And, importantly, all of these options are being developed so that they can be taken by people who don't yet know whether they will be taken. So overparsing those signals to try and decide if it's a bluff or not is likely to be a fruitless exercise in reading tea leaves

Which, of course, is not to say they are equally likely, or you can't or shouldn't prepare for or attempt deterrence against those options. Only that if you look at the images and conclude it guarantees action or inaction only from the images, that's bad analysis.

Maybe just to put it as bluntly as possible, because this platform isn't great at nuance: the bluff/not-bluff framing is a bad framing; the buildup isn't a bluff, even if they eventually don't take action, and the only responsible course of action is to treat it deadly seriously

If it doesn't happen, it'll be because putin decides not to (for any of a number of reasons), not because the military was not deadly serious in ensuring he has a range of such options available to order at short notice.

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